LEAD ANALYSIS +

Situation Room Convenes: Trump Authorizes Iran Campaign Wider Than Current Hormuz Operations

President Trump held a Situation Room meeting Tuesday to discuss a new offensive against Iran described by three sources as 'wider in scope' than the ongoing strikes around the Strait of Hormuz — a significant threshold crossing from maritime pressure to expanded campaign. This matters today because Brent crude has already surged 13.2% week-over-week to $86.04, and the market has priced current Hormuz-area operations, not a broader campaign targeting inland Iranian infrastructure. The non-obvious angle: on the same day Trump convened the meeting, he welcomed Iraqi PM Ali al-Zaidi to the White House and pledged 'a lot of deals' — a sequencing that mirrors classic Gulf economic architecture construction before military escalation, not after. Watch whether CENTCOM issues new targeting disclosures within 48 hours and whether the Brent-WTI spread widens above $8, the historical signal for Gulf-specific supply premium detaching from domestic US production. Full causal chain analysis in this week's briefing.

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SIGNAL BOARD

7 KEY WATCHES STATUS 24H Δ

1 Geopolitical Flashpoints Trump held a Situation Room meeting Tuesday on Iran strikes 'wider in scope' than current Hormuz operations, per three sources with direct knowledge. RISING +100%

2 Economics & Markets China's Q2 GDP growth came in below Beijing's 4.5%-5% full-year target — the slowest quarterly expansion since 2022 — as investment slumped and stimulus calls intensified. RISING +100%

3 Domestic Politics Trump welcomed Iraqi PM Ali al-Zaidi to the White House Tuesday, pledging 'a lot of deals' as the administration constructs Gulf economic architecture before widening its Iran campaign. RISING +100%

4 Foreign Policy Taiwan's opposition Taiwan People's Party sent its first formal nine-member delegation to mainland China since the party's founding, traveling to Shanghai to pursue cross-strait dialogue. RISING +100%

5 Defense & Security Malaysia's Royal Malaysian Navy is taking delivery of a littoral combat ship fully equipped for anti-submarine and electronic warfare but carrying zero ship-killing weapons, after nearly a decade of delays and financial scandal. RISING +100%

6 Energy & Resources Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan face a regional fuel crisis as Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil infrastructure reduce petroleum export volumes to Central Asian dependents. RISING +100%

7 Technology & AI SK Hynix shares surged 13% Monday on AI memory demand expectations as US tech stocks resumed their climb following cooler-than-expected US inflation data. RISING +100%

MARKET PULSE

6 INDICATORS VALUE 24H Δ 7D TREND

1 S&P 500 7,543.6 +0.5%

2 BRENT $86.04 +13.2%

3 VIX 16.50 +4.2%

4 10Y TREASURY 4.58% +5bps

5 GAS (RBOB) $3.08 +3.1%

6 USD INDEX 100.82 -0.3%

SITUATION BOARD